The Two-Step Economy

Tiptoe through the tulips with me.-(Tiny Tim)

 

All of lamestream zoomed in on the unemployment rate dropping below 8%. Media is hailing it everywhere as a solid sign the economy is getting better. (so it has less tumors than it had last month) Proof that its on the mend, so they say. Forget Obama’s failures which are not adding jobs or promise to this economy. I am no economist or scholar, but you don’t have to be to see some trends.

I’ve been watching the to and fro of this economic rollercoaster we’ve been on. How many times has the groundhog stuck his head out of the hole to call for an early spring? (Punxsutawney Phil would be delirious) Whenever there is moderately decent economic news, and wall street follows suit, they said we are on the “road to recovery”.

And there are certainly political reasons they want to wish it better. Contrary to what the lib-progs think, no one is hoping for doom and gloom. No one wants to talk it down. Don’t confuse warnings for wishful thinking. They don’t have to, if the recovery was real you would feel it.

However, there sure are people who want to talk it up. That is very evident. (Jack Welsh wasn’t entirely wrong) But they miss the point. Virtually every time I hear good economic news, I see the price of oil jump, gas and fuel follows. Its been doing that for a few years. I don’t think you need to validate it with a chart. It happens. We get no relief for the oil prices which doubled in Obama’s term. If we project it out, it could triple in his second term, if we see any economic growth. My guess is as good as anyone’s, since that is the direction its been heading based on good news, up.

So that tells me that the other shoe is bound to drop. Sure the Dow may rally on this bit of good news. But then the other shoe will slam to the ground. When it does, oil will shoot up again – call it another gusher. It does that as reality sets in to people that we aren’t “healed” yet and we do not have much to be “confident” about. As far as I can tell, it isn’t really a decent economy until people feel it. They can’t fool and fake people on that. (Hey Jed, let’s move to Beverly Hills…NOT)

Energy is sucking the life-blood out of the economy, but they will parade around the gusher saying we’re on the rebound with oil right in the middle of their celebration. ‘We are on the road forward, and don’t look back’, we hear. When it does shoot up, the economy takes a deep breath and seems to crawl back in its hole. That’s what I’ve seen in this term. There are plenty of reasons they can justify it with from the ME to China to closing coal supplies. There are a plethora of excuses they can make. But it will still have a negative effect on the economy.

So they can tout the below 8% record-breaking trend on unemployment. But there is always room for new record highs for oil. And there will be no shortage of the reasons for it.

Washington wish-mongers may be in denial but the rest of America is not. That is on top of inflation and prices of everything from food to clothing on the rise too. They should feel more like tiptoeing when shouting “recovery!”