The election in 2020 could end up being one between Obama and Trump, where none of the regular factors of political campaigns apply. You only have to revisit the 2012 election for a preview.
This thesis may seem anecdotally boring to those on the right, while it seems ridiculous to those on the left. It really depends on which side you are. Though both will probably be surprised in the end, if I am correct.
The 2012 election beween Romney and Obama was a bit of a misnomer. Obama was not in a comfortably favored spot by his record and what he had done so far without vetting. There were underlying issues to use against him.
The problem was that Romney did not prosecute the case against Obama. And in the final weeks of the election he all but abandoned the campaign, for whatever reasons. It doesn’t really matter for this case why.
Backing up to his initial race. Obama really ran as an outsider though that was entirely questionable. But in 2012, his campaign guru David Plouffe came up with the strategy – the only one he said could work – to run Obama as a non-incumbent candidate. So the strategy was to run an insurgent caampaign.
That is odd for a supposed likeable, successful president. Only he had a lot to run from. See Obama had a whole list of baggage that plagued him as the perenial insider, while they needed to make him an outsider. An impossible task, you might think. That strategy is like running against one’s self and one’s own record.
Then, helped by Romney’s many failures as a candidate, it was not a problem.
Donald Trump does not have the same problem Obanma had. He has an adequate record of change, he is the ultimate outsider, and yet he has the incumbent advantage he is is not afraid of. He also has the economic powerhouse verses the anti-capitalist radicals.
Actually, Trump has been personally running against Obama all along. First when he ran; and then ever since in every investigation and every witch-hunt contrived against him. Then shedding the policies of Obama to deconstruct the administrative state. It seems to be a very personal rivalry from Obama’s perspective that he never let go of. Trump is tasked with combating the administrative Deep State Obama built. He made strides
Trump also governs as an outsider. The proof is all over the media. And people appreciate his perseverance on issues that they have been fighting against for years.
He’s changed things from the same old failed politics of usual into including the voice of the people. Something Obama could never do. Political correctness has taken a back seat to right and wrong. It all reinforces the image of an outsider in Washington shaking up the status quo. As if that were even possible before.
Now Joe Biden is running with a peculiar predicament. He wants to run as an insurgent while being the consummate insider. That would be impossible. He needs to be the insurgent riding to the rescue with a credible reputation. He needs to have the high road even after years of taking the low road. He is the the ultimate creature of the swamp.
It could only be a schizophrenic campaign. One day Joe is railing as an outsider; the next he is lecturing with all his inside experience of a 44 year card-carrying veteran of Washington politics, as a made man. He’ll say he was right there with Obama making the decisions. Then he’ll come back and say we need accountable government — except Obama and Biden were not responsible or held accountable for anything. He’ll claim we need reforms; but no, Trump has been the ultimate reformer changing the way the system works. Biden will say we need to go forward, while trying to drag us back to the cesspool of Obama years. (before that was GW Bush)
Now, coming into view, we have the ideal election between status quo big-government politics and Trump’s small government, people-power approach. And no one represents big-government orthodoxy more than the Obama presidency. Biden is also a high priest of big-government. Now that the Dems have jettisoned working people, all that is left is the institutional ruling class that they represent with every move they make. Biden is the poster boy, even though many leftists don’t think he is radical or progressive enough.
Pay to play, corruption, secrecy in DC, career politics and elite ruling class are badges of honor in Biden’s campaign. He is the swamp personified that won’t let go..
However, what we are really running against is Obama. He is behind the scenes of it all in the shadowy swamp of DC and the DNC. Joe is only a front man for all Obama represented. Obama’s record is Joe’s. Even Hillary was never the placeholder that Biden is.
So it is a defacto referendum on Obama, like the real campaign challenge he never had in 2012. Let’s be honest, the real power beind Biden’s campaign is Obama and the Obamafiles sitting in the wings. Sure there are some Hillary people, but the force is with the Obama folks who have all signed on to the Bernie progressive formula for a poorer, anti-carbon, pro-corruption Amerika. Where identity is everything, individuals are nothing.
But that is Obama to a tee. And all Obama’s baggage is just layered on top of the wagon train. We don’t have to guess what Joe Obama would do. We have the proof.
After all, who was Obama running against in 2008? No, it was not McCain. It was George W Bush. But McCain was not even a placeholder for Bush. Obama literally ran against a former 2-term president the entire time.
Trump has the advantage that this is Obama’s record. To Obama, it seems everything he hoped for without being held accountable for the scandals and corruption. But he is wrong. Biden is all the negative and none of the positive. And I’m pretty sure there never was any positive to Obama. This is Obama 3.0. First was the outsider candidate, then was the insurgent incumbent, then came the invisible candidate hiding behind the campaign.
And all we and Trump have to do is prosecute the case because everything is on the table. It’s all fair game. There cannot be any “this has nothing to do with Obama.” It all has everything to do with Obama. It is Obama. We’re really running against Obama the candidate and his administration, with his entire record.
In fact, the biggest mistake would be not running against Obama and his record. It’s the opportunity of a lifetime. Exactly what Dems don’t want. And it is very personal.
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