With another win safely tucked under Trump’s belt, the message is becoming clearer. Trump seems poised to take the nomination, surprising some and pissing off others.
However, there is one interesting thing I find. The estabos are mad of course, but they seem powerless against the up and comer. Well now, when you parse it down it reveals something else. With Cruz and Trump relying on conservatives — frustrated ones that is — they tend to split up that vote. The various ways don’t mean much except that a split should work to the favor of the establishment, RNC types. But then when you see Rubio barely tying Cruz now for the second time, it reveals how weak the establishment is.
If I read it my way, that implies establishment support is less than a third. That would be bad news for establishment. Then when you parse down how much of that candidate vote really is by and for the establishment, it looks worse and worse. Not all Rubio’s vote is establishment support. No, I don’t know the particular numbers and don’t have to to make some generalizations on how weak that establishment support really is. So it is not just a year of the outsider but also the year of the shrinking establishment.
Then there is the strange desire that estabos want either Cruz or preferably Trump out of the race. But that would only further consolidate conservatives, except for the ones who swear they won’t vote for Trump. So their strategy would tend to work against them.
There is the other problem: the ‘sworn-off’ vote. When it comes to the general, they will have to support the nominee or nothing. How many times have we conservatives been told we have to hold our noses? So that part of the vote seems to be irrelevant in the end.
Then there is the problem, so they say, of the high negatives of Trump. Really? Have you seen Hillary’s negatives? But how meaningful are those high negatives in the general election between two candidates? Now with an outsider, insurgent, anti-establishment election, I would expect some high negatives to surface. …Just my observations.
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